Saturday, October 18, 2008

What will be the impact of race on the race?

I've said before if you are voting for Obama because he is black you are voting Obama for the wrong reason. Likewise if you are voting for McCain because Obama is black you are voting McCain for the wrong reason.

I do not know of any polls that indicate the impact of race. There is the Bradley effect, but I do not know of any statistics. However I've been an observer of people for many years because that is how I made my living. Social scientists say that Blacks and Latinos are more apt to act in concert as a member of a group than Caucasians. So in all likelihood blacks may end up pooling their votes for Obama.

However, racial feelings run deep. I've heard the talk. When the curtain on the voting booth closes who knows what happens but I am sure many will vote their heart. I do not think we have any measure of the extent racial hatred exists. Barry Goldwater said during his campaign many years ago that you cannot legislate love into a man's heart. I think we shall find out. Obviously we've come a long way toward honoring diversity, but is it lip service or have beliefs, prejudices and bias really changed?

I think if Obama has a significant lead we will see him win but by 5% lower than the polls predicted. I hope not, but I believe the possibility is real.

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